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WTPZ43 KNHC 201442

TCDEP3

 

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023

800 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

 

Kenneth's cloud pattern has become a little better organized since

yesterday evening.  Conventional imagery and a recent AMSR2

microwave overpass show improved curved banding in the northern and

eastern semi-circles.  Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised 

to 45 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the 

subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

 

Although not explicitly shown in the official intensity 

forecast, there's a possibility that the storm could strengthen 

a little more in the short term, but that small window of 

opportunity appears to end tomorrow while deep-layer shear 

increases along Kenneth's track.  This inhibiting upper-level wind 

pattern, along with decreasing oceanic surface temperatures and 

an invading stable and dry lower boundary marine layer should 

induce a weakening trend through dissipation in about 4 days.

 

Kenneth's anticipated turn toward the west-northwest has

occurred overnight, and the estimated motion is 290/9 kt around

the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high centered over

northwestern Mexico.  On Thursday, the cyclone is forecast to 

turn northwestward while moving between the above mentioned high 

pressure and an approaching mid-tropospheric trough to its 

northwest.  The NHC track forecast is based primarily on the

HFIP HCCA corrected consensus and only a slight adjustment to the 

right of the previous forecast was made beyond the 24-hour period.



 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  20/1500Z 15.2N 123.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  21/0000Z 15.6N 124.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  21/1200Z 16.2N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  22/0000Z 17.4N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  22/1200Z 18.9N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH

 60H  23/0000Z 20.2N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  23/1200Z 20.7N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Roberts