####018002408#### WTPZ43 KNHC 202038 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Kenneth's cloud pattern has not changed appreciably during the last 6 hours. The average of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak numbers is 45 kt. Most of the objective intensity estimates are a bit lower. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is maintained at 45 kt for this advisory. The center of Kenneth is estimated to be near the southern edge of the central dense overcast. However, the current position is quite uncertain. The initial motion is estimated at 290/9 kt. A turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected on Thursday between a subtropical high centered over northwestern Mexico and a potent mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of Kenneth. The track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the north of the previous NHC track prediction, but not as far north as the latest consensus models. Kenneth is currently located in an environment that is favorable enough for it to at least maintain its intensity over the next 12-24 hours. However, a more stable air mass is located just to the north and northwest of the cyclone, as evidenced by scattered low stratus clouds seen on GOES-18 satellite imagery, indicative of a marine boundary layer. As Kenneth approaches the mid- to upper-level trough over the next couple of days, strong southwesterly wind shear will increasingly encroach on Kenneth. Kenneth will also cross the 26C isotherm about the same time the shear ramps up Thursday evening. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast, and Kenneth should become a remnant low Friday night or Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is near the middle of the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.7N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 16.2N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 17.3N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 18.5N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 21.0N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts