####018002009####
WTPZ43 KNHC 210831

TCDEP3

 

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023

200 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

 

Infrared satellite images indicate that deep convection associated

with Kenneth has been decreasing in intensity during the past

several hours, and accordingly, some of the Dvorak estimates have

been coming down.  The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is

still near a blend of all of the satellite intensity estimates.

 

Dry air is beginning to wrap into the western portion of the

circulation, and that stable air combined with a significant

increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear will likely cause

deep convection to strip away from the low-level center and result

in weakening that should commence later today.  Kenneth is expected

to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, when it is

forecast to be over sub 26 degree C waters and in an environment of

more than 30 kt of wind shear.  The remnant low is now expected to

open into a trough by 72 hours, following most of the models.

 

Kenneth is moving northwestward at 9 kt in the flow between a mid-

to upper-level low to its northwest and a subtropical ridge

situated over central Mexico.  A turn to the north-northwest and

then the north is expected later today and early Friday as Kenneth

continues to move in the flow between the aforementioned features.

The new forecast is shifted a little to the right to be closer to

the GFS and ECMWF models, which are in good agreement.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  21/0900Z 17.5N 125.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  21/1800Z 18.5N 126.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  22/0600Z 20.0N 126.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  22/1800Z 21.7N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  23/0600Z 22.9N 126.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 60H  23/1800Z 24.2N 126.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi