####018001474####
WTPZ43 KNHC 220241

TCDEP3

 

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023

800 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

 

Kenneth is barely clinging to tropical cyclone status.  Satellite 

imagery shows an exposed low-level center with a small burst of deep 

convection displaced over 100 miles to its north.  The intensity is 

held at 35 kt, closest to the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate.

 

The tropical storm is still moving to the north-northwest at 6 kt.  

Track guidance suggests Nigel should turn northward soon in the flow 

around a high pressure system centered over central Mexico.  The 

latest official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory 

prediction.  Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to 

remain hostile and therefore, Nigel should gradually weaken.  Global 

model simulate satellite imagery indicates there could be occasional 

bursts of convection near the center, but the system is still 

forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in a day or so.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  22/0300Z 18.5N 125.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  22/1200Z 19.9N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  23/0000Z 21.5N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  23/1200Z 22.6N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  24/0000Z 23.6N 126.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 60H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Bucci

 

####018001836####
WTNT45 KNHC 220241

TCDAT5

 

Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number  27

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023

300 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023



Nigel has not quite completed its transition to a post-tropical 

cyclone.  A burst of deep convection formed near the center a few 

hours ago, and it is therefore still considered a tropical system.  

Based on a partial ASCAT pass and the latest satellite intensity 

estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt for this 

advisory.



Cold ocean waters and significant vertical wind shear should cause 

Nigel to weaken further.  The hurricane should become a powerful 

extratropical cyclone within about 12 hours.  As noted previously, 

Nigel continues to grow in size and an expansion of the 34-kt wind

field is expected during the next couple of days.

 

The hurricane is moving east-northeastward at 32 kt.  An east- 

northeastward to northeastward motion along the southeastern side of 

a deep-layer mid-latitude trough is expected during the next day or 

so.  Beyond a day, Nigel should rotate around the eastern side of a 

large extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic.  The two 

features should merge in about 60 h and the official forecast now 

shows dissipation at the time.  The model guidance remains tightly 

clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the center of the 

envelope.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  22/0300Z 45.1N  36.7W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  22/1200Z 47.5N  30.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  23/0000Z 51.3N  25.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  23/1200Z 55.0N  23.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  24/0000Z 56.9N  25.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Bucci