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WTPZ43 KNHC 220833

TCDEP3

 

Tropical Depression Kenneth Discussion Number  12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023

200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

 

Kenneth is just barely enough to be classified as a tropical

cyclone. Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center

continues to be exposed with waning convection displaced to the

north of the system. A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the

system is producing winds around 25-30 kt. Based on the 

scatterometer pass, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this 

advisory, which is also in good agreement with the latest TAFB 

Dvorak intensity estimate.

 

The tropical depression is moving to the north at 9 kt. The system

will continue to move northward during the next day or two, around 

a high pressure ridge centered over central Mexico. Towards the end 

of the period, the remnant low will begin to move westward in the

low-level flow. There was little change to the previous forecast

track for this advisory.

 

Kenneth is in a fairly hostile environment with strong vertical wind

shear and cool sea surface temperatures. The system should continue

to gradually weaken in these unfavorable conditions. Kenneth is

forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  22/0900Z 19.4N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  22/1800Z 20.8N 125.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 24H  23/0600Z 22.3N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  23/1800Z 23.2N 126.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  24/0600Z 23.5N 127.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 60H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Kelly