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WTPZ44 KNHC 232039

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142023

1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023



An area of disturbed weather located well southwest of the southern 

tip of the Baja California peninsula became rapidly better organized 

this morning. SSMIS microwave imagery at 1427 UTC showed that deep 

convection had organized into a very well-defined band, with what 

appeared to be a developing low-level center just to the north of 

the convection. Since then, 1-minute visible GOES-18 has been very 

helpful in confirming the development of a well-defined surface 

circulation. Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical 

Depression Fourteen-E. The initial maximum sustained wind estimate 

is highly uncertain, but is based on a 30 kt Dvorak current 

intensity analysis from TAFB.



The depression appears to be quite small, and is therefore not being 

well-resolved by most global models. The center of the cyclone 

appears to be just north of a tight band of deep convection. Its 

small size and an expected moderate shear environment could make the 

cyclone susceptible to rapid changes in intensity that are difficult 

to anticipate. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than 

the model consensus for the next 48 h, most similar to the DSHP 

model, but still shows only slight strengthening during that time 

frame. After about 72 h, wind shear is expected to increase quickly, 

which should cause the small cyclone to weaken. The system is 

subsequently expected to dissipate into a trough after about 4 days.



The initial motion estimate is west at 12 kt. An extensive ridge 

extending over most of the eastern North Pacific should keep the 

depression on a similar heading for the next 4 days until the system 

dissipates. Although the strength of the depression does not appear 

to be captured well by the global models, they do appear to have 

very reasonable track forecasts that are in good agreement with one 

another. The initial NHC track forecast is near the middle of the 

average-spread guidance envelope.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  23/2100Z 13.9N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  24/0600Z 14.3N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  24/1800Z 14.7N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  25/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  25/1800Z 14.9N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 60H  26/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  26/1800Z 14.3N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 96H  27/1800Z 14.0N 142.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster D. Zelinsky