####018002492####
WTNT42 KNHC 232040

TCDAT2

 

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023

500 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023

 

Overall, the structure of the cyclone hasn't changed significantly 

since this morning. Its low-level center is still displaced west of 

most of the associated deep convection. That said, satellite 

intensity estimates are generally a little higher than they were 

about 6 hours ago, ranging from about 30 to 35 kt. The intensity is 

set at 35 kt, in best agreement with the latest subjective TAFB 

Dvorak estimate and the objective UW-CIMSS DMINT and SATCON, making 

the system Tropical Storm Philippe.

 

Philippe is expected to maintain its general structure for the next 

couple of days, which should prevent it from substantially 

strengthening. While the intensity guidance is generally slightly 

higher than 6 h ago, the dynamical models remain in generally good 

agreement on the intensity forecast for the next few days. Beyond 72 

h, Philippe will approach a mid- to upper-level trough, which could 

result in an increase of both upper-level difluence and deep-layer 

shear. Slight additional intensification is possible at that point, 

but no periods of significant strengthening are expected during the 

next 5 days. The official intensity forecast remains near the IVCN 

and HCCA intensity consensus aids.

 

The tropical storm continues to move westward, near 12 kt. This 

should generally continue for the next couple of days until Philippe 

approaches the aforementioned trough. At that point, as long as the 

tropical storm has strengthened slightly as expected, it should 

begin to turn northwestward, and then northward, influenced by the 

deeper-layer steering flow imparted by the trough. The official 

track forecast has been shifted slightly northeastward and slower 

compared to the previous one, and is close to the latest HCCA 

forecast.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  23/2100Z 15.6N  39.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  24/0600Z 15.7N  41.6W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  24/1800Z 15.9N  43.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  25/0600Z 16.3N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  25/1800Z 16.7N  48.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 60H  26/0600Z 17.2N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  26/1800Z 18.0N  51.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  27/1800Z 21.0N  53.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  28/1800Z 24.0N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster D. Zelinsky