####018002196####
WTPZ44 KNHC 240235

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142023

500 PM HST Sat Sep 23 2023

 

The depression has changed little since the last advisory.  Deep 

convection, with cold cloud tops below -80 degree C, have been 

forming near the estimated low-level center for the past several 

hours.  Microwave imagery still shows a curved band in the southern 

portion of the circulation.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, 

closest to the TAFB Dvorak classification.

 

Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions suggest the depression 

could strengthen during the next several days.  The majority of the 

guidance shows gradual strengthening, even with a low-to-moderate 

vertical wind shear environment.  As mentioned previously though, 

global models do not appear to be capturing the initial state of 

this system well, making the short-term forecast slightly less 

certain.  By day 2, the upper-level winds are expected to increase 

through the end of the forecast period which should limit 

intensification.  At 96 h, the cyclone should move into an area of 

higher wind shear and dry mid-level relative humidities which are 

expected to weaken the system into a post-tropical remnant low, and 

then open into a trough by day 5.   

 

The depression is moving westward at 13 kt.  A mid-level ridge 

centered over central Mexico should keep the cyclone on a general 

westward trajectory through the entire forecast period. The latest 

NHC track forecast shifted slightly south of the previous forecast 

and lies just north of the various consensus aids. 

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  24/0300Z 13.9N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  24/1200Z 14.3N 123.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  25/0000Z 14.5N 126.6W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  25/1200Z 14.5N 129.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  26/0000Z 14.4N 131.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 60H  26/1200Z 14.0N 134.6W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  27/0000Z 13.6N 137.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 96H  28/0000Z 13.1N 144.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Bucci