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WTPZ44 KNHC 241440

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142023

500 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023

 

There's been little change in the depression's cloud pattern since

yesterday evening.  Recent microwave and first visible conventional

satellite images depict a sheared tropical cyclone with the surface

center well north of the shapeless deep convection.  The intensity 

is held at 30 kt for this advisory and is based on the TAFB and SAB 

satellite intensity estimates.

 

Although the depression is expected to track over warm oceanic

surface temperatures during the next few days, increasing wind shear

and an intruding dry and stable air mass should prevent the cyclone 

from strengthening through the forecast period.  Therefore, the new 

official intensity forecast no longer indicates a short-term 

intensification period, and now shows the depression degenerating to 

a remnant low early this week, as suggested by the statistical 

SHIPS intensity models and the global guidance.

 

The depression's initial motion is estimated to be westward or 

280/13 kt.  A mid-level subtropical ridge extending from the Baja 

California peninsula to the western tropical East Pacific should 

steer the cyclone on a generally westward track through the 36-hour 

period.   Afterward, a turn toward the west-southwest is expected 

while the vertically shallow depression moves through the low-level 

tradewind flow through dissipation.  The NHC forecast track is to 

the right of the previous advisory due to the initial position 

adjustment and lies between the HFIP HCCA and TVCE consensus 

forecasts.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  24/1500Z 15.2N 123.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  25/0000Z 15.2N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  25/1200Z 15.1N 128.6W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  26/0000Z 14.7N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  26/1200Z 14.1N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

 60H  27/0000Z 13.3N 136.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  27/1200Z 12.6N 140.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  28/1200Z 10.8N 146.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Roberts