####018002122####
WTPZ44 KNHC 242038

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142023

1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023

 

Moderate (15-20 kt) deep-layer shear and an enveloping dry and

stable low- to mid-level atmosphere have taken their toll

on the depression.  The cyclone has lacked organized deep

convection since last night and primarily consists of a swirl of

low cloud elements, with deep convection well south of the surface

center associated with the inter-tropical convergence zone.  The

initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a Dvorak CI number of 2.0 

from TAFB.  Despite warm waters ahead of the depression's track, the 

negative environmental contributions mentioned above should cause 

the depression to weaken further while impeding deep convective

redevelopment.  Subsequently, the cyclone is expected to degenerate

to a remnant low later tonight and open into a trough in 4 days, or

less.

 

The exposed surface circulation's initial motion is estimated to be

westward or 270/13 kt.  The forecast track philosophy is unchanged.

Mid-tropospheric high pressure extending from the Baja California

peninsula to the western tropical East Pacific should steer the

cyclone on a generally westward track through Monday.  A turn

toward the west-southwest is expected on Tuesday within the

low-level tradewind steering flow through dissipation.  The official

forecast is an update of the previous one and is based on the

various consensus aids.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  24/2100Z 15.2N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  25/0600Z 15.3N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 24H  25/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  26/0600Z 14.7N 132.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  26/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 60H  27/0600Z 12.7N 139.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  27/1800Z 11.5N 142.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Roberts