####018002092####
WTNT42 KNHC 261432

TCDAT2

 

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  13

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023

1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2023

 

Philippe continues to struggle due to strong west-southwesterly 

shear associated with a mid- to upper-level low to its northwest. 

The low-level center is completely exposed and deep convection 

remains well removed to the east of the center.  The latest 

satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 42 kt, and based on 

that data, the initial wind speed is nudged downward to 40 kt.



The strong shear is not expected to let up over the next several 

days, which should keep the storm asymmetric and weak.  A 

combination of the shear and dry air entrainment should lead to a 

gradual decay, and simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF 

models suggest that Philippe will likely degenerate into a remnant 

low in 3 or 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle 

of the guidance envelope and now shows the system becoming a 

remnant low by day 4.



Philippe continues to move westward, and it has not gained much 

latitude over the past 24 hours due to its sheared structure.  

Based on the previous track, the expected asymmetric structure, and 

the new model guidance, the NHC track forecast is again shifted to 

the left as Philippe is expected to continue to move in the low- to 

mid-level flow.  This forecast lies on the southern side of the 

guidance envelope, in best agreement with the ECMWF model.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  26/1500Z 17.3N  50.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  27/0000Z 17.9N  51.6W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  27/1200Z 18.9N  53.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  28/0000Z 19.8N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  28/1200Z 20.7N  56.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 60H  29/0000Z 21.2N  58.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

 72H  29/1200Z 21.2N  59.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

 96H  30/1200Z 21.2N  62.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  01/1200Z 21.3N  65.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi