####018002637####
WTNT42 KNHC 270845

TCDAT2

 

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  16

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023

500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2023



Philippe continues to be a disorganized tropical cyclone.  

Satellite imagery shows a cloud pattern consisting of bursting deep 

convection in an amorphous-looking blob just east of the estimated 

center with a few areas of convection farther to the east and 

southeast.  Although there was some evidence earlier of a 

convective band over the eastern periphery of the circulation, that 

feature has since broken up into less-organized patches of showers 

and thunderstorms.  The current intensity estimate is held at 40 kt 

based on earlier scatterometer measurements.  However, subjective 

and objective Dvorak intensity estimates suggest a weaker storm.



Philippe is expected to remain in a sheared environment, and 

ingesting drier low- to mid-level air, over the next few days.  

Wind fields from both the ECMWF and GFS models show Philippe's 

circulation weakening below tropical storm strength around 48 hours 

and beyond.  Simulated satellite imagery from those models also 

depict the system as lacking sufficient organized deep convection to 

be considered a tropical cyclone while it approaches the northern 

Leeward Islands.  The official intensity forecast, like the previous 

one, shows Philippe degenerating into a remnant low pressure area 

around 72 hours.



The cyclone continues on a mainly westward heading at around 280/10 

kt.  Philippe is currently being steered by the flow to the south 

of a weak mid-level anticyclone, and is expected to move 

west-northwestward on the southwest side of this high during the 

next couple of days.  In the latter part of the forecast period, 

the weakening and increasingly shallow system should turn toward 

the west-southwest following the low-level trade winds.  The 

official track forecast has again been shifted a little southward in 

3-5 days, following the TVCN consensus solution.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  27/0900Z 17.6N  52.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  27/1800Z 18.4N  54.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  28/0600Z 19.1N  55.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  28/1800Z 19.6N  57.1W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  29/0600Z 19.6N  58.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

 60H  29/1800Z 19.5N  60.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

 72H  30/0600Z 19.4N  62.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  01/0600Z 19.0N  64.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  02/0600Z 19.0N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

$$

Forecaster Pasch