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WTNT43 KNHC 282046

TCDAT3

 

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023

500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2023

 

Tropical Storm Rina has not changed much this afternoon. Visible 

satellite imagery indicates that the center of circulation is 

mostly exposed to the northwest of persistent deep convective 

activity. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB both support 

an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory.

 

A combination of Rina's close proximity to Tropical Storm Philippe 

and moderate deep-layer northwesterly shear is likely to limit 

intensification in the short term. This shear is expected to 

increase this weekend and early next week, and it not forecast to 

abate during the forecast period. The NHC forecast remains in the 

middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly lower than the prior 

forecast. While Rina is expected to remain a tropical storm 

throughout the forecast period, uncertainty in the intensity 

forecast is higher than normal due to the potential interaction with 

Philippe.

 

Rina is moving northwestward, with an initial forward speed

near 12 kt. The tropical storm should begin to turn more westward

tonight and continue this general motion for the next several days.

Early next week, the system is expected to turn northward and 

eventually northeastward as a mid-level ridge builds to the west. 

The NHC forecast is a blend of the prior forecast and the HCCA and 

TVCN consensus guidance throughout the forecast period. As 

with the intensity forecast, confidence in the track forecast is 

lower than normal due to uncertainty regarding the potential 

interaction of Rina with Tropical Storm Philippe during the next 

several days.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  28/2100Z 18.1N  46.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  29/0600Z 18.8N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  29/1800Z 19.4N  47.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  30/0600Z 19.7N  48.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  30/1800Z 20.1N  50.1W   45 KT  50 MPH

 60H  01/0600Z 20.6N  51.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  01/1800Z 21.5N  53.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 96H  02/1800Z 24.2N  56.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

120H  03/1800Z 26.8N  58.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi