####018002645####
WTNT42 KNHC 291448

TCDAT2

 

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  25

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023

1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

 

There has been little change in Philippe's satellite appearance this 

morning.  The storm remains sheared with the low-level center 

located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection.  

The satellite intensity estimates continue to have a large spread, 

ranging from 30 to 55 kt.  ASCAT data should be available soon, and 

the Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 

Philippe this afternoon.  Both of these datasets will provide a 

better assessment of Philippe's intensity and structure.



Philippe has only moved roughly 40 miles over the past 24 hours, and 

it has been generally drifting to the southwest during that time.  

The slow motion over the past day or so is due to its interaction 

with Tropical Storm Rina several hundred miles to its east.  Since 

these tropical cyclones are expected to continue to interact through 

the weekend, Philippe is forecast to crawl southwestward during the 

next 2 or 3 days.  After that time, Rina is expected to separate 

from Philippe as a mid-level ridge builds over the subtropical 

central Atlantic.  In response, Philippe should turn sharply 

northward early next week.  Although there remains a fair amount of 

spread in the models, they are in considerably better agreement 

today compared to the past couple of days.  Overall, little change 

was made to the previous track forecast, and it continues to lie 

close to the various consensus models.  



Although Philippe is still being affected by shear, the environment 

over the next several days appears to become less hostile.  Light 

to moderate wind shear, increasing mid-level humidities around the 

storm, and very warm SSTs should allow Philippe to gradually 

strengthen.  The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward 

again this cycle, but still lies on the lower end of the model 

guidance.  Additional upward revisions seem likely if the 

guidance persists. 

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  29/1500Z 18.3N  55.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  30/0000Z 18.1N  55.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  30/1200Z 17.8N  55.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  01/0000Z 17.4N  56.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  01/1200Z 17.3N  56.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 60H  02/0000Z 17.5N  56.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

 72H  02/1200Z 18.4N  57.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  03/1200Z 21.5N  58.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

120H  04/1200Z 26.1N  57.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi