####018001487####
WTNT43 KNHC 301455

TCDAT3

 

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023

1100 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023



Satellite images show that Rina remains disorganized with any deep 

convection sheared off well southeast of the center.  Intensity 

estimates are dropping, and ASCAT just came in with maximum winds 

just above 35 kt, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt.  

Strong shear should continue near the cyclone until it dissipates 

in 2-3 days.  Model guidance is in relatively good agreement on 

this scenario, and the new intensity forecast is lower than before, 

showing remnant low status as the weekend closes.



Rina continues moving west-northwestward, now at 10 kt.  The storm 

should rotate northwestward and northward on the northern side of 

Philippe for the next couple of days.  Thereafter, a weakened Rina

is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure as it moves 

into the subtropics.  The new track forecast is very similar to the 

last forecast, with no big changes to the guidance.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  30/1500Z 21.2N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  01/0000Z 22.1N  51.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  01/1200Z 23.5N  53.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  02/0000Z 25.0N  55.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  02/1200Z 27.0N  56.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 60H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Blake