####018001875####
WTNT43 KNHC 010835

TCDAT3

 

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023

500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

 

Strong northwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Rina.  The

cyclone has been producing an area of deep convection overnight,

but it is disorganized and located well southeast of the exposed

center.  Any convection that has occurred near the center during

the past 12-18 hours has been very short-lived.  Given the tight 

circulation that is noted in infrared satellite imagery, the 

initial wind speed is held at a possibly generous 35 kt for this 

advisory.  Scatterometer data later this morning should help to 

determine if Rina is still producing tropical-storm-force winds. 

 

Environmental conditions consisting of moderate to strong vertical

wind shear and dry mid-level air should cause gradual weakening 

during the next day or two.  Rina is forecast to become a remnant 

low later today or tonight, and the global models indicate that the 

circulation will open up into a trough of low pressure and 

dissipate within a couple of days.

 

Rina is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. The cyclone is

expected to turn northward later today as it is steered between a

low- to mid-level ridge to its northeast and a mid-tropospheric

trough over the western Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is

near the center of the guidance envelope, which is slightly east of 

the previous advisory. 

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  01/0900Z 24.3N  53.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  01/1800Z 25.6N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 24H  02/0600Z 27.7N  55.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  02/1800Z 30.4N  54.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Brown