####018001777####
WTNT43 KNHC 011453

TCDAT3

 

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  13

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023

1100 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

 

Despite continued northwesterly shear, a small area of deep 

convection has persisted to the south and southeast of the center of 

Rina this morning. The low-level center remains exposed in visible 

satellite images, and recent ASCAT data suggests the center is 

becoming less defined with weak winds noted on the southwest side of 

the circulation. Based on the scatterometer winds, the initial 

intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, with the strongest 

winds confined to the southeastern quadrant of the storm.

 

Rina is still moving northwestward at 320/13 kt. The system is

expected to turn more northward later today and tonight while it

moves around the periphery of a subtropical ridge over the central

Atlantic. The track models are in good agreement, and the updated

NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one. The environmental

conditions are forecast to remain hostile going forward, and Rina is

forecast to gradually weaken over the next day or so due to the

negative influences of moderate to strong wind shear and dry

mid-level air. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models

suggest Rina could become a post-tropical remnant low by tonight,

and the system is forecast to open into a trough of low pressure and

dissipate by late Monday.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  01/1500Z 25.3N  54.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  02/0000Z 26.8N  55.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 24H  02/1200Z 29.3N  54.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Reinhart