####018003125####
WTNT42 KNHC 012034

TCDAT2

 

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  34

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023

500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

 

The structure of Philippe has not changed much since this morning. A 

large area of deep convection remains in the southeastern quadrant 

of the cyclone, with a small burst near the center.  The initial 

wind speed is held at 45 kt, per the latest satellite 

classifications, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 

is scheduled to be inside the storm tonight.

 

The southward progress of Philippe has thankfully stopped today,

and recent fixes show it moving between west-northwest and

northwest at about 6 kt.  A building ridge well to the northeast

should steer the storm generally northwestward tonight and Monday,

with a turn to the north forecast on Tuesday while the system moves

around the western periphery of the ridge.  Eventually a faster 

north-northeastward motion is anticipated at long range as the storm 

enters the mid-latitudes.  While the track forecast has been 

adjusted a bit to the east, this should not be interpreted as the 

end of any threat to the Leeward Islands with still some models 

near those islands.  Notably, a very strong rain band on the 

southern side of Philippe will be very close to moving over the 

northern Leeward Islands, and it could turn out that rainfall and 

flooding would be the main hazard of the storm.

 

There's been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning from the

last cycle, with strong shear near Philippe expected to limit

intensification during the next couple of days.  There remains a

decent chance that the shear could relax by the middle of the week,

allowing Philippe to become a hurricane after it recurves into the

subtropical central Atlantic.  Guidance has been inconsistent at 

long range with the storm, so the best course of action seems to 

be to hold the forecast steady to see if any notable trends emerge.

 

 

KEY MESSAGES:

 

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the

northern Leeward Islands Monday and Monday night while Philippe

passes near or just northeast of the area, and a Tropical Storm

Watch is in effect for Antigua and Barbuda.  Interests elsewhere

in the northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this

system as additional watches or warnings could be required later

today or tonight.

 

2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered

flash flooding, particularly across Barbuda and Antigua, through

Tuesday.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  01/2100Z 16.4N  59.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  02/0600Z 17.0N  59.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  02/1800Z 17.7N  60.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  03/0600Z 18.7N  61.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  03/1800Z 19.9N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 60H  04/0600Z 21.4N  62.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  04/1800Z 23.1N  62.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  05/1800Z 26.9N  61.1W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  06/1800Z 30.0N  58.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Blake