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WTPZ45 KNHC 040245

TCDEP5

 

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023

900 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023

 

Lidia has changed little since the last advisory.  Last-light

geostationary satellite imagery showed a small, deep burst of

convection forming over the low-level center, with the majority of

the cold cloud tops in the northwestern portion of the circulation.

Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have held

steady this cycle, and the initial intensity remains at 35 kt.

 

The storm is moving northwestward at an estimated 6 kt.  A mid-level

ridge centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should continue

to steer the storm generally northwestward for the next day or so.

By Thursday, Lidia should turn west-northwestward to westward along

the south side of the ridge as it builds westward.   While the model

guidance generally agrees on the turn westward, there is still quite

a bit of spread in the along-track speed.  The corrected consensus

aid, HCCA, favors a slower solution while the simple consensus aids,

TVCN and TVCE, show faster forward speeds and a progression farther

to the west.  The latest NHC track guidance is similar to the

previous advisory and favors the simple consensus aids.

 

Lidia is in an environment of moderate-to-strong easterly vertical

wind shear. Global models predict that these atmospheric conditions

should persist for the majority of the forecast period.  Still,

other conditions such as the warm sea surface temperatures and a

relatively moist surrounding airmass, should allow for some gradual

strengthening.  Only minor adjustments have been made to the

official intensity forecast, which is close to the consensus aid,

IVCN.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  04/0300Z 13.4N 107.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  04/1200Z 14.2N 108.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  05/0000Z 15.0N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  05/1200Z 15.5N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  06/0000Z 15.7N 109.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

 60H  06/1200Z 15.7N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  07/0000Z 15.7N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  08/0000Z 15.5N 112.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

120H  09/0000Z 15.7N 114.1W   65 KT  75 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Bucci