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WTPZ45 KNHC 041442

TCDEP5

 

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023

900 AM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023

 

Lidia continues to produce a large convective rain shield, with 

a deep convective burst and cloud top temperatures around -80 

degrees Celsius. An earlier microwave pass depicts that the system 

continues to gradually organize with a mid-level core developing, 

but the low-level center is still displaced to the east of the 

mid-level core, due to easterly vertical wind shear. Subjective 

Dvorak intensity estimates this cycle from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45 

kt. Given the improved satellite depiction and intensity estimates 

the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory.

 

The initial motion is north-northwestward or 335 degrees at 7 kt. A

mid-level ridge over Mexico will continue to steer the system

north-northwestward during the next day or so. Afterwards, a ridge

will build to the north of Lidia which will result in a slower

forward motion and a turn towards the west through the remainder of

the forecast period. There continues to be a large spread in the

along-track guidance as the system turns westward. Most of the

global models are faster, while the hurricane regional models and

HCCA corrected consensus are slower. Therefore, there is increased

uncertainty in the long range track forecast. The NHC track is

slightly faster than the previous, and lies between the faster

global models and the slower regional models.

 

Models are in fairly good agreement that the moderate-to-strong

easterly vertical wind shear will continue to persist over Lidia the

next several days. However, warm sea surface temperatures, a moist

environment and upper-level diffluence will allow slow strengthening

of the system. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous

forecast, and the intensity forecast lies near the IVCN consensus

aid.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  04/1500Z 14.8N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  05/0000Z 15.5N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  05/1200Z 16.0N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  06/0000Z 16.1N 110.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  06/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 60H  07/0000Z 15.9N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

 72H  07/1200Z 15.7N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  08/1200Z 16.0N 114.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

120H  09/1200Z 16.3N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Kelly