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WTPZ45 KNHC 050237

TCDEP5

 

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023

900 PM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023

 

Lidia has maintained its small, sheared structure for the past 

several hours. Convection has been waning, but infrared 

geostationary imagery shows a growing burst of convection 

developing west of the estimated low-level center.  Microwave 

imagery also revealed a large curved band around the western and 

northern portion of the circulation.  Subjective and objective 

satellite intensity guidance nearly all agree on a 45-kt estimate, 

and therefore, the initial intensity is held constant for this 

advisory.

 

The storm has a somewhat uncertain motion since the center position 

is obscured by the cirrus canopy, but the direction is estimated to 

be northwestward, or 325/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge over Mexico is 

steering Lidia, and the storm is expected to maintain its current 

motion for the next 12 hours or so.  Then the ridge is forecast to 

build and turn the cyclone westward in the next day or so, with a 

slight decrease in forward motion.  By day 5, global models predict 

the ridge will erode and turn Lidia northwestward.  There is still 

above average spread in the model guidance, largely due to the 

along-track differences in the westward progression of the storm.  

The latest official track forecast has shifted slightly north of the 

previous advisory and favors the simple consensus aid, TVCE.

 

There are competing factors contributing to the intensity forecast.

While the storm is forecast to be over warm ocean waters and in an

area of decent mid-level moisture, a limiting factor is still the

moderate-to-strong deep-layer vertical wind shear.  Most models

show gradual strengthening, and minor adjustments have been made to

the latest NHC intensity forecast, which is closest to the IVCN

consensus aid.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  05/0300Z 15.6N 109.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  05/1200Z 16.0N 109.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  06/0000Z 16.2N 110.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  06/1200Z 16.3N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  07/0000Z 16.1N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 60H  07/1200Z 16.0N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  08/0000Z 16.1N 113.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  09/0000Z 16.5N 114.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

120H  10/0000Z 17.0N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Bucci