####018003362####
WTPZ45 KNHC 051453

TCDEP5

 

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023

900 AM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023

 

Lidia continues to have bursts of deep convection, with cold cloud 

tops to -80 degrees Celsius, within the overall convective shield. 

An AMSR2 microwave pass depicts that the mid-level core continues to 

develop, with the low-level center displaced to the east of the 

mid-level center. There is a wide range of satellite estimates this 

morning. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB 

were T3.5/55kt this cycle, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS 

AiDT and ADT range from 50 kt to 65 kt, respectively. However, an 

earlier scatterometer pass around 0500 UTC had much lower winds 

than anticipated near 35 kt. Given these higher satellite estimates 

and satellite imagery, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, 

which is on the lower end of the estimates and a little uncertain. 

Another scatterometer pass is anticipated over the system this 

afternoon.



Lidia continues to move slowly northwestward at 315/4 kt. The 

system is being steered by a mid-level ridge centered over central 

Mexico. By tonight, the ridge is forecast to strengthen to the 

north which will cause the system to slow even more and turn 

west-northwest then westward. In about 3 days, a mid-/upper-level 

trough is forecast to approach from the northwest which 

will weaken the aforementioned ridge. This will induce another turn 

of Lidia to the northwest, then north to northeastward through 

the end of the forecast period. There continues to be some spread 

within the guidance envelope on the along-track forward speed and 

when the turn back to the northeast occurs later in the forecast 

period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is

based on a blend of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.



Moderate deep-layer easterly shear should continue over Lidia 

throughout the forecast period. Oceanic sea surface temperatures

remain warm along the forecast track, and the oceanic heat content 

remains high. The system should remain a small compact system, 

which may allow for fluctuations in intensity. GFS/ECMWF SHIPS 

intensity probabilities of a 25-kt increase in 24 hr have increased 

to 32 and 39 percent this cycle, respectively. While this is not 

explicitly forecast, it is something where the trends will have to 

continue to be monitored. The official intensity forecast has been 

slightly raised in the short-term, with Lidia forecast to become a 

hurricane in 48 h. Some weakening is forecast beyond 3 days due to 

an increase in drier mid-level air and continued easterly shear. The 

NHC intensity forecast lies near the simple corrected consensus, 

IVCN intensity guidance.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  05/1500Z 15.9N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  06/0000Z 16.1N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  06/1200Z 16.1N 110.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  07/0000Z 16.0N 111.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  07/1200Z 16.0N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH

 60H  08/0000Z 16.3N 113.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

 72H  08/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  09/1200Z 17.7N 114.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  10/1200Z 18.1N 112.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Kelly