####018002341#### WTNT22 KNHC 041441 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 65.7W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 65.7W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 65.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.7N 66.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.6N 65.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.8N 65.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.2N 65.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.8N 65.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 80SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.8N 67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 52.9N 71.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 65.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG ####018002327#### WTPZ25 KNHC 041441 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.6W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.6W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.5N 109.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N 110.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N 111.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.7N 112.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 16.0N 114.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 16.3N 115.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY