####018003517####
WTPZ34 KNHC 302340

TCPEP4

 

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 9A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

700 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

 

...PILAR EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OVER 

PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

 

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.6N 90.9W

ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR

ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Entire coast of El Salvador

* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca

* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

 

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua

and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this

system.

 

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was

located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 90.9 West.  Pilar is

moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion

is expected to continue through early Wednesday.  On the forecast

track, Pilar could be near the coast of El Salvador or Nicaragua

Tuesday through early Wednesday, though the core of the system is

expected to remain offshore.  The storm is forecast to move

west-southwestward away from land on Thursday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Further strengthening is expected during the next day or so,

and Pilar could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday.  Weakening is

expected to begin on Wednesday and continue through Thursday.

 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.

 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml

 

RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to

10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of Central

America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through Wednesday.

This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with

mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

 

SURF:  Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting

the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These

swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical

Storm Watch area early Tuesday.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

 

$$

Forecaster Pasch