####018003462#### WTPZ34 KNHC 310836 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 ...PILAR COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 90.4W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador * Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca * Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 90.4 West. Pilar is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, Pilar could be approaching the coast of El Salvador or Nicaragua late today through early Wednesday, though the core of the system is expected to remain offshore. The storm is forecast to begin moving west-southwestward away from land by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Pilar could intensify some over the next day or two before gradual weakening likely begins on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical Storm Watch areas this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake