####018003533#### WTPZ34 KNHC 312034 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 89.5W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador * Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca * Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 89.5 West. Pilar is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). Pilar is forecast to move little tonight into early Wednesday. On the forecast track, Pilar could move a little closer to the coast of El Salvador or Nicaragua tonight through early Wednesday, though the core of the system is expected to remain offshore. The storm is forecast to begin moving west-southwestward away from land by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so before gradual weakening likely begins on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras, western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly