####018003517#### WTPZ34 KNHC 010236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 ...PILAR DRIFTING NORTHWARD BUT FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD TOMORROW... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 89.4W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador * Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca * Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case over the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and in southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 89.4 West. Pilar is drifting toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). Beginning tomorrow into Thursday, Pilar is forecast to start moving westward to west-southwestward. On the forecast track, the storm may remain in close proximity to coastal Central America into tomorrow, but Pilar's core is forecast to remain offshore. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, for portions of Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras, western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin