####018003703####
WTNT32 KNHC 162333

TCPAT2

 

BULLETIN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two

Intermediate Advisory Number 1A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023

700 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

 

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, 

EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI...

 

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.7N 81.4W

ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Jamaica

* Haiti

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,

and Las Tunas

* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands

 

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

 

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude

15.7 North, longitude 81.4 West. The system is moving toward the

north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A northeastward motion is

expected to begin tonight, with increasing forward speed through

the weekend.  On the forecast track, the center of the system is

expected to move across Jamaica late Friday, southeastern Cuba early

Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands

on Saturday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher

gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the

disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.  



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found

in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and

WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

 

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning

Friday, eastern Cuba and Haiti Friday night, and the southeastern

Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.

 

RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to

produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts

of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica,

southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. These

rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in

areas of higher terrain.

 

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of

onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern

Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

 

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect

portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next

couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your

local weather office.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

 

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi