####018004594#### WTPZ32 KNHC 192356 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 600 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 108.0W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Los Barriles to La Paz * North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slower northward to northeastward motion is forecast later this weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the southern portion of Baja California on Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is expected during the next few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near the southern portion of Baja California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias Friday and Friday night, and in the watch areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday. RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far southern portion of California Baja Sur. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch