####018005305#### WTPZ32 KNHC 210834 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLASH FLOODING, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 110.1W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Topolobampo to Mazatlan. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo * North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe * Topolobampo to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 110.1 West. Norma is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northeastward to east-northeastward turn with a reduction in forward speed is expected tonight through Monday. On the forecast track, The center of Norma is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur within the hurricane warning area later today. Norma is forecast to move toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday night and move inland within the tropical storm watch area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, but Norma is expected to remain a hurricane while it moves over the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). An observation station in Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning areas in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias today and are expected in the warning area along the west coast of Mexico Sunday. RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with local maxima of 15 inches across the far southern portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across portions of Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur. These swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts