####018004013#### WTPZ32 KNHC 221146 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 600 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INTO MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 109.7W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to San Evaristo * Huatabampito to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 109.7 West. Norma is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northeastward motion is expected to begin later this morning, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast later today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico today and move inland within the tropical storm warning area tonight or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and Norma is expected to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical storm. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. An automated observing site near Topolobampo, Mexico, reported a wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread onshore along portions of the warning area along the west coast of mainland Mexico through tonight. RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through today and through Sinaloa into Monday. These rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding along the coast of Baja California Sur should gradually subside today. Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the coastal flooding will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci