####018003033#### WTPZ33 KNHC 231446 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 ...OTIS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 97.5W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of the Otis. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 97.5 West. Otis is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Otis will reach the southern coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday night. SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Delgado