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WTIN20 DEMS 100645

 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 10.04.2024

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

AND

THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF

10.04.2024

BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 10.04.2024.

BAY OF BENGAL:

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO

VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL , SOUTH OF LAT

10.0N

ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (MINIMUM

CLOUD

TOP TEMPERATURE MINUS 80 DEGREE CELSIUS). SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM

CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH

ANDAMAN SEA AND ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF

BAY OF BENGAL.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:

24           24-48         48-72        72-96       96-120    120-144

144-168

HOURS         HOURS       HOURS         HOURS       HOURS      HOURS

HOURS

NIL           NIL          NIL          NIL          NIL        NIL

NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY

ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA & SOUTHEAST ARABIAN

SEA OFF SOUTH KERALA COAST (MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE MINUS 85

DEGREE CELSIUS). SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED

MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH ARABIAN SEA AND

ISOLATED

WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER COMORIN AREA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:

24         24-48       48-72        72-96      96-120    120-144

144-168

HOURS      HOURS       HOURS        HOURS      HOURS      HOURS

HOURS

 NIL        NIL         NIL          NIL        NIL       NIL

NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY=