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WTIN20 DEMS 171230



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 17.12.2023

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

AND

THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF

17.12.2023

BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 17.12.2023.



BAY OF BENGAL:

YESTERDAYS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN &

ADJOINING

SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF SOUTH SRI LANKA COAST NOW LIES OVER

COMORIN

AREA &; NEIGHBOURHOOD EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT

0300 UTC

OF TODAY, THE 17 TH  DECEMBER, 2023.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:

 24      24-48    48-72   72-96   96-120   120-144   144-168

HOURS    HOURS    HOURS   HOURS    HOURS    HOURS     HOURS

NIL       NIL      NIL     NIL      NIL      NIL       NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY





ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO

VERY

INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER COMORIN AREA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM

CLOUDS

WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ARABIAN

SEA

AND WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND

LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AREA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



 24      24-48    48-72   72-96   96-120   120-144   144-168

HOURS    HOURS    HOURS   HOURS    HOURS    HOURS     HOURS

NIL       NIL      NIL     NIL      NIL      NIL       NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY=