####018002439####
WTIN20 DEMS 300717



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 30.12.2023

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

AND

THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF

30.12.2023

BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 30.12.2023.



BAY OF BENGAL:



YESTERDAYS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL &

ADJOINING

BANGLADESH AT 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTED OVER THE SAME

REGION AT

0300UTC OF TODAY, THE 30TH DECEMBER.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER EXTREME SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL ADJOINING EQUATORIAL

INDIAN OCEAN AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (MINIMUM CTT MINUS 85 DEG CEL).

SCATTERED

LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE

CONVECTION LAY OVER REST BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



 24      24-48      48-72     72-96    96-120    120-144    144-168

HOURS    HOURS      HOURS     HOURS     HOURS     HOURS      HOURS

 NIL      NIL        NIL       NIL       NIL       NIL        NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY



ARABIAN SEA:

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF YESTERDAY\U2019S UPPER-AIR CYCLONIC

CIRCULATION OVER

WEST EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, A LOW

PRESSURE AREA FORMED OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0830 HOURS IST (0300UTC)

OF

TODAY, THE 30TH DECEMBER, 2023 AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-AIR CYCLONIC

CIRCULATION

IS EXTENDING UPTO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-

NORTHWESTWARDS AND BECOME WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL

PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING WEST EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN

DURING NEXT 48 HOURS



SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO

VERY

INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA ADJOINING EQUATORIAL

INDIAN

OCEAN (MINIMUM CTT MINUS 93 DEG CEL). SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS

WITH

EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS

AREA MALDIVES AND COMORIN AREA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



 24      24-48      48-72     72-96    96-120    120-144    144-168

HOURS    HOURS      HOURS     HOURS     HOURS     HOURS      HOURS

 NIL      NIL        NIL       NIL       NIL       NIL        NIL=