####018002229#### WTIN20 DEMS 020930 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 02.01.2024 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 02.01.2024 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 02.01.2024. BAY OF BENGAL: A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS LAY OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF SOUTH SRILANKA COAST AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, 2ND JANUARY, 2024. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL SOUTH OF LAT 10.0N ADJOINING EQUITORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND SRILANKA (MINIMUM CTT MINUS 90 DEG CEL). PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY ARABIAN SEA: YESTERDAYS LOW-PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING WEST EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS AND LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AT 0300UTC OF TODAY, THE 02ND JANUARY, 2024 WITH THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UP TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND BECOME WELL-MARKED LOW-PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ARABIAN ADJOINING INDIAN OCEAN (MINIMUM CTT MINUS 90 DEG CEL). SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER LAKSHADWEEP ISLAND AREA, COMORIN AREA & MALDIVES AREA. PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY=