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WTIN20 DEMS 041220

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.01.2024

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

AND

THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF

04.01.2024

BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 04.01.2024.

BAY OF BENGAL:

YESTERDAY\U2019S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL

OFF SOUTH

SRILANKA COAST EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL HAS BECOME

LESS

MARKED AT 0300UTC OF TODAY 4 TH JANUARY, 2024.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL SOUTH OF LATITUDE 10.0N

ADJOINING

EQUITORIAL INDIAN OCEAN. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH

EMBEDDED

ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL &

ANDAMAN SEA.

*PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT

168 HRS:



24HOURS 24-48HOURS 48-72HOURS  72-96HOURS  96-120HOURS 120-144HOURS

144-168HOURS

   NIL      NIL      NIL        NIL            NIL         NIL

NIL



*NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY

ARABIAN SEA:

YESTERDAY'S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA HAS BECOME

LESS

MARKED AT 0300UTC OF TODAY, 4 TH JANUARY, 2024. HOWEVER, THE

ASSOCIATED

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA & ADJOINING

LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND EXTENDED UPTO 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT

0300UTC

OF TODAY, THE 4 TH JANUARY, 2024. THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED

TROUGH

RUN FROM THE CENTER OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO SOUTH KARNATAKA AND

EXTENDED UPTO 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ADJOINING SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA,

LAKSHADWEEP ISLAND AREA & MALDIVES AREA.

*PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT

168 HRS:

24HOURS  24-48HOURS   48-72HOURS    72-96HOURS   96-120HOURS

120-144HOURS  144-168HOURS

NIL        NIL          NIL            NIL            NIL        NIL

NIL=