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WTIN20 DEMS 060925



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 06.01.2024

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

AND

THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF

06.01.2024

BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 06.01.2024.



BAY OF BENGAL:

YESTERDAYS TROUGH FROM SOUTH SRI LANKA TO SOUTHWEST ADJOINING

WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL RUN FROM SOUTH SRI LANKA TO SOUTHWEST BAY

OF

BENGAL OFF SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST ACROSS NORTH SRI-LANKA COAST

AND

EXTENDED UPTO 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT 0300UTC OF TODAY, THE

6TH

JANUARY, 2024.



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL ADJOINING

SOUTH

WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER

REST

OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN. SCATTERED

LOW AND

MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF

CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



 24     24-48    48-72    72-96   96-120    120-144    144-168

HOURS   HOURS    HOURS    HOURS    HOURS     HOURS      HOURS

 NIL     NIL      NIL      NIL      NIL       NIL        NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY





ARABIAN SEA:

YESTERDAYS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA & NEIGHBOURHOOD

PERSISTED OVER THE SAME REGION EXTENDED UPTO 1.5KM ABOVE MEAN SEA

LEVEL AT

0300UTC OF TODAY, THE 6TH JANUARY, 2024. THE TROUGH RUN FROM THE

CYCLONIC

CIRCULATION OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA & NEIGHBOURHOOD TO VIDARBHA ACROSS

SOUTH KONKAN, SOUTH MADHYA MAHARASHTRA AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL

AT

0300UTC OF TODAY, THE 6TH JANUARY, 2024.



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AREA &

MALDIVES

AREA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



 24     24-48    48-72    72-96   96-120    120-144    144-168

HOURS   HOURS    HOURS    HOURS    HOURS     HOURS      HOURS

 NIL     NIL      NIL      NIL      NIL       NIL        NIL=