####018002108#### WTIN20 DEMS 101010 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 10.01.2024 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THEBAY OF BENGAL OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 10.01.2024 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 10.01.2024. BAY OF BENGAL: BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL ADJOINING EQUITORIAL INDIAN OCEAN GULF OF MANNAR SRI LANKA & NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS (MINIMUM CTT MINUS 93 DEG CEL). SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY ARABIAN SEA: YESTERDAYS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM SOUTHEAST & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA EXTENDING UPTO 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL BECAME LESS MARKED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 10 TH JANUARY, 2024. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL LAY OVER KERALA COAST AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 10 TH JANUARY, 2024. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER COMORIN AREA (MINIMUM CTT MINUS 80 DEG CEL) AND MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL & SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA. PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL=