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WTIN20 DEMS 120700

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 12.05.2024

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

AND

THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF

12.05.2024

BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 12.05.2024.

BAY OF BENGAL:

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO

VERY

INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL ADJOINING EQUITORIAL

INDIAN

OCEAN & ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH

EMBEDDED

ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF

BENGAL

AND ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTHEAST &

EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:

24      24-48   48-72  72-96  96-120 120-144 144-168

HOURS   HOURS   HOURS  HOURS   HOURS  HOURS   HOURS

NIL      NIL     NIL    NIL     NIL    NIL     NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY

ARABIAN SEA:

YESTERDAY\U2019S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTH PAKISTAN &

ADJOINING NORTHEAST

ARABIAN SEA AT 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS AT 0300 UTC OF

TODAY, 12 TH

MAY 2024.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA SOUTH OF LATITUDE 10 0

NORTH

COMORIN AREA & GULF OF MANNAR.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:

24      24-48   48-72  72-96  96-120 120-144 144-168

HOURS   HOURS   HOURS  HOURS   HOURS  HOURS   HOURS

NIL      NIL     NIL    NIL     NIL    NIL     NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY=