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WTIN20 DEMS 290705



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 29.12.2023

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

AND

THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF

29.12.2023

BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 29.12.2023.

BAY OF BENGAL:

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LAY OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING

BANGLADESH AT 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT 0300UTC OF TODAY, THE

29TH

DECEMBER.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER SRILANKA, SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL (MINIMUM CLOUD

TOP

TEMPERATURE MINUS 80 DEG CEL). SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH

EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER PALK STRAIT, GULF OF

MANNAR AND ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF

SOUTH

BAY OF BENGAL & CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



24     24-48    48-72     72-96    96-120    120-144     144-168

HOURS  HOURS    HOURS     HOURS     HOURS      HOURS      HOURS

NIL      NIL     NIL       NIL       NIL        NIL        NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY





ARABIAN SEA:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA ADJOINING EQUTORIAL INDIAN

OCEAN

MALDIVES AREA & COMORIN AREA (MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE MINUS 90

DEG

CEL).

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



24     24-48    48-72     72-96    96-120    120-144     144-168

HOURS  HOURS    HOURS     HOURS     HOURS      HOURS      HOURS

NIL      NIL     NIL       NIL       NIL        NIL        NIL=