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WTIN20 DEMS 110800



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 11.01.2024

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THEBAY OF BENGAL OF

BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600

UTC OF

11.01.2024 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 11.01.2024.



BAY OF BENGAL:

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO

INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHBAY OF BENGAL PALK STR. SCATTERED LOW

AND

MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER

NORTH &; WESTCENTRALBAY OF BENGAL ANDAMAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



 24      24-48   48-72   72-96   96-120   120-144   144-168

HOURS    HOURS   HOURS   HOURS   HOURS     HOURS     HOURS

 NIL      NIL     NIL     NIL     NIL       NIL       NIL





NOTE  EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY





ARABIAN SEA:

YESTERDAYS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER

KERALA

COAST BECAME LESS MARKED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 11 TH JANUARY,

2024.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE CONVECTION LAY

OVER

SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA COMORIN AND MALDIVES AREA (MINIMUM CTT MINUS 72

DEG

CEL). SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO

INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER LAKSHADWEEP ISLAND AREA AND ISOLATED WEAK

CONVECTION

OVER CENTRAL & SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



 24      24-48   48-72   72-96   96-120   120-144   144-168

HOURS    HOURS   HOURS   HOURS   HOURS     HOURS     HOURS

 NIL      NIL     NIL     NIL     NIL       NIL       NIL



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY=