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AXNT20 KNHC 151012

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1205 UTC Mon Apr 15 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1000 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: A subtropical ridge centered north of the

Greater Antilles. This is forcing gale force winds which will end

this morning. Seas are 8 to 11 ft. Fresh to strong winds will 

continue in the south- central Caribbean through at least Thu. 



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra

Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ

extends from 05N16W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated 

strong convection is observed south of 06N and east of 26W. 

Similar convection is noted south of 04N and between 21W and 46W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Weak high pressure system located in the NE Gulf of Mexico

dominates the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather

conditions. Moderate to occasionally fresh E-SE winds are present

south of 26N and east of 90E and in the remainder of the Gulf west

of 90W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and

slight seas are found in the NE Gulf, north of 26N and east of

90E.



For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong 

winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the 

next several evenings. Winds will become fresh to strong over the 

western Gulf on tonight into Tue. Otherwise, moderate winds and 

seas will prevail through most of the week. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale

warning off the coast of Colombia.



A surface trough is analyzed in the NE Caribbean Sea, along 67W.

Isolated showers are noted near the boundary, affecting the

islands in the area and surrounding waters. Similar convection is

also noted in the north-central Caribbean, affecting SW Haiti. 

Generally dry conditions are found elsewhere in the Caribbean.



Outside of the gale warning region, the pressure gradient between

the broad subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles and

lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong to near

gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean.

Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and

seas of 4-7 ft are found in the north-central Caribbean, 

including the Windward Passage, eastern Caribbean and lee of Cuba.

Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the 

remaining waters. 



For the forecast, gale-fresh to strong winds will prevail off the 

coast of Colombia, pulsing to gale- force tonight with seas to 11 

ft. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse in the Windward 

Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for 

the next few days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and 

moderate seas can be expected across much of the basin through the

middle of the week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A stationary front enters the western Atlantic near 31N58W and 

continues southwestward to eastern Cuba. Light showers are 

evident on satellite imagery near the frontal boundary. Farther 

east, a broad 1006 mb low pressure system is located near

32N31W. Overnight scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to 

strong cyclonic winds north of 25N and between 27W and 45W. Wave 

heights in these waters are 10-17 ft, with the highest seas 

occurring near 31N36W. Seas ranging 8 to 10 ft extend as far south

as 12N and as far west as Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, a trough is 

noted south of the low along with a cold front in the waters 

31N22W to 25N25W. Gentle winds are noted E of 25W to the coast of 

Africa. Fresh winds are noted S of 22N. 



For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will gradually 

dissipate today. Large N-NE swell across the waters impacting 

Puerto Rico southward to the Leeward islands will linger through 

the middle of the week. High pressure will continue to build over 

waters N of 20N, bringing more tranquil marine conditions..



$$

AReinhart