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AXPZ20 KNHC 091540

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Thu May 9 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1530 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near

11N86W to 09N100W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 10N117W. The

ITCZ extends from 10N117W to 06N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered

moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between

96W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to

14N between 87W and 92W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Strong high pressure is centered well N of the area. A broad

ridge extends southward from the high across the regional 

Pacific waters and weakly southeast over the offshore waters of 

Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure 

extends northward along the entire coast of California. The 

pressure gradient between the high pressure and this area of low 

pressure is generally allowing for moderate northwest winds over

the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lucas. S of

Cabo San Lucas, moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are

noted. Seas across most of the Baja waters are 6 to 8 ft, except

7 to 9 ft in northwest swell N of Punta Eugenia. Inside the Gulf

of California, winds are light to gentle with seas 2 to 4 ft. 

Elsewhere over the south and southwestern Mexican offshore 

waters, winds are gentle to moderate, west to northwest in 

direction. Winds become onshore across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 

while seas remain 5 to 6 ft in SW swell.



For the forecast, the strong high pressure that is well N of the

local area will shift south and west while weakening through the

weekend. This will maintain moderate northwest winds offshore 

Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro and moderate to fresh 

northwest winds S of Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend. 

Northwest swell will continue to move into the Baja offshore 

waters through Fri, with seas in excess of 8 ft persisting across

the waters N through W of Punta Eugenia today before subsiding

overnight. Gentle to locally moderate west to northwest winds 

along with moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the S and 

southwestern Mexican offshore waters through Mon night. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A weak pressure pattern is in place over this part of the area. 

Atmospheric moisture has substantially increased as the typical 

monsoonal circulation for this time of year becomes seasonally 

established. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and 

isolated thunderstorms over most of these waters, except for 

isolated showers and thunderstorms E of 93W, mostly impacting the

Central American offshore waters. Some of this activity may be 

accompanied by gusty winds at times and moderate to rough seas. 

Frequent lighting may also accompany the activity once it begins 

to exhibit a clustering pattern later today. Winds remain light 

and variable and seas moderate, 4 to 5 ft in S swell. Between the

coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly 

moderate from the S to SW in direction along with seas of 5 to 7 

ft in S swell.



For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest 

winds are expected S of 09N through Fri. This will feed moisture

into shower and thunderstorm activity currently over the Central

American waters. This activity will shift slowly westward of 90W

by Fri afternoon. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail 

elsewhere along with moderate seas in a south swell. Otherwise, 

new southerly swell entering the region will maintain seas of 6 

to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through Sun, and build briefly

to near 8 ft Fri night. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered well N of the 

discussion area. Broad ridging extends from it southward across 

the subtropical waters between 105W and 140W. The gradient 

related to this ridge is maintaining moderate to locally fresh 

northwest to north winds N of 25N between 120W and 130W. Seas 

across this area N of 20N are 6 to 8 ft in northwest swell, 

except 7 to 9 ft north of 27N and E of about 130W. S of 20N 

between the ridge and the ITCZ and W of 120W, moderate to locally

fresh northeast to northeast to east winds along with seas of 

and 6 to 8 ft seas in northeast swell prevail. South of the ITCZ,

gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are present as seen 

in overnight ASCAT data. Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft due 

to mixed southeast and southwest swell. Elsewhere, light to 

gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, moderate trade winds over the western part of 

the tropical waters will gradually become confined to between the

ITCZ and 20N through Sun, as high pressure N of the area 

gradually weakens. Seas of 6 to 7 ft with small pockets of seas 

to 8 ft are expected across the trade winds zone through Fri, 

then subside slightly through Sun. Northwest swell across the 

Baja California Norte waters producing seas of 7 to 9 ft will 

subside below 8 ft later tonight, and to 6 ft or less on Sat.



$$

AReinhart