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AXPZ20 KNHC 270945

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Wed Mar 27 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0900 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: 

The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehunatepec is expected by

late Wed night as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the

Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving

across the Gulf of Mexico. Wind are forecast to increase quickly

and reach near-gale to gale-force by early Thu morning. Seas

under these winds will build and peak at 12 to 14 ft by Thu

evening. Swell generated by these gap winds will spread

southwestward, creating seas of 8 to 11 ft reaching as far west 

as 100W on Fri morning. Both winds and seas should begin to 

subside late Fri afternoon. 



Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, especially local 

fishermen need to monitor this upcoming gap wind event, and take

necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions.



Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts

issued by the National Hurricane Center at 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 

detail.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



An equatorial trough extends westward from the border of Panama

and Colombia across 06N105W to a 1010 mb low at 05N125W. An ITCZ

curves westward from 01N126W through 01S131W to beyond 02N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 

82W and 113W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is

present near the low from 04N to 07N between 120W and 126W.

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale 

Warning.



A broad, modest surface ridge across the eastern Pacific is 

supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with 5 to 7 ft 

seas in moderate NW swell across the offshore waters of Baja 

California. Moderate with locally fresh W to NW winds and seas of

2 to 4 ft are present at the southern Gulf of California, while 

light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are evident for the 

rest of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 

ft are seen near the coasts of Jalisco and Colima, including 

water near Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 

seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate NW swell prevail for the rest of 

the Mexican offshore waters.



For the forecast, gap winds at the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 

begin late Wed night, then quickly reach near-gale to gale-force 

by early Thu morning with seas building to between 8 and 10 ft. 

Gale to strong-gale gap winds and seas peaking at 12 to 14 ft are

expected to persist through Fri morning, then both winds and 

seas should steadily subside Fri afternoon through evening. 

Pressure gradient between a surface ridge across the eastern 

Pacific, and lower pressure over Mexico will support fresh to 

strong winds and rough seas at the central and southern Gulf of 

California, and near Cabo Corrientes until late tonight. A strong

cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters of Baja 

California and northern Gulf of California on Sat, bringing with 

it increasing winds and NW swell.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering widely scattered 

showers near the Galapagos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon

Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the region. 

Otherwise, gentle with locally moderate S to SW to W winds and 2

to 4 ft seas prevail across the offshore waters of central 

America, Colombia and Ecuador. 



For the forecast, convergent southwesterly winds along with 

abundant moisture will continue to support sporadic showers and 

thunderstorms near the Galapagos Islands and in the Costa Rica 

and Panama offshore waters through at least Fri. Winds and seas 

could be higher near thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to gentle 

winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire 

region through Thu night. Starting Fri, increasing gap winds and 

rising seas will occur in the Papagayo area, and Gulf of Panama 

as high pressure builds north of the area. Also on Fri, swell 

generated by gap winds at the Tehuantepec region will cause rough

seas across the far southwestern offshore waters of Guatemala 

and El Salvador.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A broad, modest surface ridge across the eastern Pacific is 

promoting gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft

in moderate NW swell north of 23N west of 120W. The pressure 

gradient between this ridge and lower pressures near the 

equatorial trough/ITCZ maintains moderate to fresh NE to ENE

trades along with 7 to 9 ft seas from 07N to 23N west of 125W, 

confirmed by the latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer data.

Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are

evident from the equatorial trough to 115N between 110W and 125W.

Gentle to locally moderate SE to SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas

prevail for the remainder of the Pacific waters.



For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken further through

tonight over the next 24 hours as a weak cold front approaches 

from the west. This will allow trade winds from 07N to 23N west

of 125W to diminish. Residual NW swell will still big enough to

keep 7 to 9 ft seas in this area until Fri. A strong cold front 

will enter the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte on 

Fri, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and large NW

swell.

 

$$



Chan