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AXNT20 KNHC 201640

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1805 UTC Sat Apr 20 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1620 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 07N13W and

continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N120W to 01N50W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 06N

between 18N and 22W. Additional scattered moderate convection is

from 02N to 055N between 34W and 47W. 



GULF OF MEXICO...



1020 mb high pressure in the NE Gulf guides fair conditions across

the basin. 3-5 ft seas and gentle to moderate SE winds prevail

west of 90W, and 2-4 ft seas with light to gentle SE winds prevail

east of 90W. Some reduced visibilities due to smoke from 

agricultural fires in Mexico have been reported at coastal weather

stations along the southern Bay of Campeche.



For the forecast, high pressure will prevail through today, with 

gentle to moderate winds in the northeast half of the basin, and 

moderate to locally fresh in the SW half of the basin. Winds will

pulse fresh to strong in the evenings NW of the Yucatan Peninsula

through at least this evening. A cold front is forecast to move 

into the NW Gulf late tonight into early Sun, stalling and 

dissipating near 23N early next week. Fresh to locally strong 

winds and building seas may follow the front through Sun night. 

High pressure will again dominate the basin by Tue and continue 

into Wed night. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



High pressure dominates north of the basin. Fresh NE winds 

prevail in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican

Republic as captured by the latest satellite scatterometer data. 

Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in the south-central 

Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, trades are light 

to gentle. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin. A weak surface trough

extends across the Leeward Islands, and may produce some brief 

showers today.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will support 

pulsing fresh to locally strong winds near the Windward Passage, 

south of the Dominican Republic, and near the coast of northern 

Colombia through early Sun. Similar winds will return and pulse 

near northern Colombia Mon evening through Wed evening. Winds will

pulse to moderate to locally fresh in the northwestern Caribbean 

through early Sun, then again by mid-week. Gentle to moderate 

trades will prevail elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Three surface troughs provide for unsettled weather in parts of

the central Atlantic. The first trough extends from 18N57W

southwestward across the Leeward Islands, and may be producing

some showers. The next trough extends from 28N50W to 22N53W, and

the final trough extends from 31N42W to 28N44W. Scattered moderate

convection is from 23N to 28N between 42W and 50W, in the vicinity

of both of these troughs. The latest satellite scatterometer data

indicates locally fresh winds near these two troughs. 1021 mb high

pressure is centered near 27N71W and 1023 mb high pressure is

centered near 31N28W. Both areas of high pressure guide fair weather

conditions across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic basin.

Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail. Between the Cabo

Verde Islands, NE winds may pulse to fresh speeds. An area of

Saharan Dust is evident on visible satellite imagery, and is

approaching the Lesser Antilles. Visibilities may be reduced to

3-6 nm in areas of heavy dust.



For the forecast, high pressure over the region will remain 

through Sun night supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. A 

cold front is forecast to move over the waters east of northeast 

Florida Sun night, then reach from 31N72W to near Jupiter, Florida

Mon evening, from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas Tue evening 

and from near Bermuda to the southeastern Bahamas Wed evening. 

Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong near 31N, are forecast to 

accompany the front, along with building seas. Otherwise seas will

be mainly slight to moderate.



$$

Mahoney