####018005629#### AXNT20 KNHC 202141 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Apr 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A surface trough extends from 31N40W SW to near 21N56W. Low pressure of 1014 mb is centered on the trough near 25N53W. The area of low pressure will shift to a position just NE of the area while deepening the remainder of the weekend into early next week. Gale force winds are forecast to develop over the far NE waters, SW of the low, by Mon afternoon. Seas will build to near 13 ft in the area of gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 08N13W and continues to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N30W to 03N43W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 12W and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 07N between 30W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high pressure center is over the NE Gulf near 27N84W. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 23N95W to 20N96.5W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting gentle to moderate winds over the waters W of 91W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range W of 90W, and 1-3 ft E of 90W. For the forecast, the area of high pressure over the NE Gulf will begin to shift eastward tonight as a weak cold front approaches the NW Gulf coast. Winds will generally remain at gentle to moderate speeds throughout tonight into early Sun. Winds will pulse fresh to strong in the evenings NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through at least this evening. A cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf late tonight into early Sun, stalling and dissipating near 23N early next week. Fresh to locally strong winds and building seas may follow the front through Sun night. High pressure will again settle over the region by Tue and change little through Thu night. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over the southern Plains is expected to increase the southeast winds in the western Gulf starting on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of the basin. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure, low pressure over Colombia, and the equatorial trough is supporting moderate trades W of 65W, reaching fresh speeds just S of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds are E of 65W. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range south of Hispaniola and the Windward passage, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the area of high pressure north of the basin will support pulsing fresh to locally strong winds near the Windward Passage, south of the Dominican Republic, and near the coast of northern Colombia through early Sun. Similar winds will return and pulse near northern Colombia Mon evening through Wed evening. Winds pulse to fresh speeds near northern Colombia Thu evening. Winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh in the northwestern Caribbean through early Sun, then again in the mornings through Thu. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see above for more on an upcoming gale in the central Atlantic. A surface trough extends from 31N40W SW to near 21N56W. Low pressure of 1014 mb is centered on the trough near 25N53W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 300 NM of the trough axis N of 26N and within 90 nm east of the trough axis from 21N to 26N. Fresh to strong winds are within 60 nm N of the low, with moderate to fresh winds within 90 nm either side of the trough. Seas over these waters are in the 5-6 ft range. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the Atlantic waters S of 31N, with a 1020 mb high centered near 26N67W, a 1018 mb high Low pressure of 1014 mb is centered near 25N53W.centered near 26N34W, and a 1022 mb high centered near 30N28W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high centers. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of the highs. Seas of 3-4 ft are noted near the high centers, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the region through Sun night, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. A cold front is forecast to move over the waters off northeast Florida Sun night. The front will reach from 31N72W to near Jupiter, Florida Mon evening, from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas Tue evening, from near Bermuda to the southeastern Bahamas Wed evening, then weaken to a nearly stationary trough on Thu and Thu night from 31N62W to 25N65W and to near the Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong near 31N, are forecast to accompany the front, along with building seas. Otherwise, seas will be mainly slight to moderate throughout. $$ AL