####018004465####
AXNT20 KNHC 210838

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1205 UTC Sun Apr 21 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0815 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 

Leone near 08N13W to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to

02N28W to 03.5N37W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong

is found on either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ within 180

nm.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front is entering the NW Gulf from S-central Louisiana to 

the mid-Texas coast, with high pressure ridging out ahead of it 

across the remainder of the basin. Scattered showers and

thunderstorms are near the front, and also lagging behind it 

across inland areas. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas 

are arriving behind the front. Gentle to moderate return flow is 

ahead of the front, except fresh NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas

are 1 to 3 ft across the NE half of the basin, and 3 to 6 ft in 

the SW half. 



For the forecast, the front will reach from N-central Florida to 

the W-central Gulf to Veracruz, Mexico this evening, then will 

weaken and eventually wash out as it pushes through the southern 

Gulf by Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will 

follow the front through early Mon, lingering offshore of Veracruz

through Mon evening. High pressure will rebuild in the wake of 

the front, with gentle to moderate winds across the NE half of the

basin, and moderate to fresh across the SW half, pulsing to fresh

to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Broad high pressure is N of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are

pulsing S of Hispaniola and just offshore N Colombia, with fresh

winds near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades prevail

elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft near the fresh to strong winds, and

2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thunderstorms are moving from NW Colombia to

the waters offshore far eastern Panama.



For the forecast, broad high pressure N of the basin will support

pulsing fresh to strong winds just offshore N Colombia through 

this evening and again Wed night. Similar winds S of Hispaniola 

will diminish later this morning. Otherwise moderate to locally 

fresh trades will prevail across the E Caribbean. Mainly gentle to

moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to 

fresh from the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage, and offshore 

central Honduras at times. A decaying cold front may reach into 

the Caribbean N of 20N Mon night, possibly bringing a brief period

of active weather. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across 

the basin.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Ridging extends from 31N55W through 27N65W to near Fort Pierce,

Florida. Another ridge extends from 31N27W through 22N40W to 18N55W.

Light to gentle winds are right under the ridges, with gentle to

moderate along the peripheries. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across most of

the basin. Between the ridges, a surface trough is analyzed from 

31N38W to 1012 mb low pressure near 27N44W to 15N60W. Scattered 

moderate convection is noted N of 27N and E of 44W. Fresh to 

strong winds are near the trough N of 25N along with seas of 5 to 

7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are from the Cabo Verde Islands to

the Canary Islands offshore western Africa to 23W, with 5 to 7 ft

seas there.



For the forecast, high pressure over the basin will continue to 

prevail ahead of a cold front which will move offshore NE Florida 

this evening, reaching from 31N73W to near Stuart, Florida Mon 

evening, from just E of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening, 

then stalling and dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the 

Turks and Caicos Islands by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and

building seas will follow the front, mainly N of 27N, near gale 

near 31N. The trough is forecast to linger through the remainder 

of the week with mainly tranquil conditions for the end of the 

week. 



$$

Lewitsky