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AXNT20 KNHC 220746

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1205 UTC Mon Apr 22 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0730 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Western Atlantic gale warning: A cold front has moved off northern

Florida with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms ahead of

it. Fresh to strong winds precede the front N of 29N, and are

arriving behind the front also. Winds will increase to gale force

late this afternoon over the waters N of 29N W of the front. The 

gale force winds will lift N of the area late tonight. Seas of 4

to 7 ft in the vicinity of the front will build rapidly, peaking 

around 14 ft near 31N. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast 

issued by the National Hurricane Center at 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-

Bissau near 12N16W and extends southwestward to 03N24W. The ITCZ 

extends from 03N24W to just NE of Brazil near 01N48W. Scattered

moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180-240 nm

either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, as well as from 01N to

07N between 48W and 57W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A cold front extends from just N of Cape Coral, Florida to just S

of Tampico, Mexico with thunderstorms possible along it. Fresh to

strong winds and building seas are behind the front, while gale 

force winds which were previously occurring offshore S Tamaulipas 

and N Veracruz having diminished below gale force. Light and 

variable winds are ahead of the front, except moderate to fresh 

W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 2 to 4 ft ahead of the 

front, and 4 to 7 ft behind the front, except 7 to 10 ft S of 25N

and W of 93W.



For the forecast, the front will push SE of the basin by this 

evening with conditions gradually improving. High pressure will 

dominate in the wake of the front through mid-week. Winds will 

increase by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens,

which will also build seas. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near

the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



High pressure N of the basin is supporting moderate to fresh

trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle to

moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean,

3 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 4 ft in the eastern

Caribbean.



For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge north of the Greater

Antilles will support moderate to locally fresh trades across the

central and eastern Caribbean, locally strong near the N coast of

Colombia and near the Gulf of Venezuela at times. Mainly gentle 

to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to 

fresh from the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage, and offshore 

central Honduras at times. A decaying cold front may reach into 

the Caribbean N of 19N tonight, possibly bringing a brief period 

of active weather. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the

basin. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please read the Special features section for information on gale 

conditions expected across the NW waters, associated with a cold

front.



Ahead of the above mentioned cold front, a ridge extends from

31N52W to near the northern Bahamas. Gentle winds are right under

the ridge, with moderate to locally fresh trades elsewhere W of

50W. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft W of 50W. To the E, low pressure is

just NE of 31N35W with associated developing gale conditions. A

cold front extends from the low through another low, 1010 mb, near

28.5N32W to 21N42W where it transitions to a remnant trough

continuing into the NE Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are N of

28N between 29W and 37W, along with 7 to 10 ft seas. Some

scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead 

of the cold front and near both lows. A ridge is to the E, from 

31N24W to 18N47W, with light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas 

under it. Mainly moderate trades prevail across the remainder of 

the waters, along with 4 to 6 ft seas.



For the forecast, the cold front mentioned above will reach from 

31N73W to near Stuart, Florida this evening, from just E of 

Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening, then stalling and 

dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos 

Islands by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas 

will be near the front, mainly N of 27N, increasing to gale speeds

N of 29N late this afternoon and spreading eastward through 

tonight. Winds will diminish below gale late tonight. Seas will 

build to 14 ft with the strongest winds. The remnant trough is 

forecast to linger through the remainder of the week with mainly 

tranquil conditions for the end of the week.



$$

Lewitsky