####018005680####
AXNT20 KNHC 292253

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Sat Mar 30 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2200 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell: Low pressure of 

1009 mb is centered near 27N57W. Broad and persistent high 

pressure is present to its northeast and east. A very tight 

pressure gradient between the low and the high pressure has been 

sustaining a large fetch of fresh to strong southeast winds for 

the past several days. This synoptic set up has resulted in seas 

of 10 to 14 ft over the waters from 23N to 31N between 41W and 55W 

with period 10- 17 sec. In the eastern Atlantic, a dissipating

cold front from Mauritania to N of the Canary Islands has been

generating swell behind it, with seas of 12 to 15 ft extending E

to around 35W, with period of 10 to 15W. This swell should decay

tonight with seas falling below 12 ft.



Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough axis extends through the coastal plains of 

Sierra Leone near 08N13W southwestward to 01N19W. The ITCZ is

confined to waters S of the equator. Numerous strong convection 

is noted near the equator to the E of 20W. Scattered moderate 

convention extends from the equator to 07N W of 37W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure of 1023 centered in the SE U.S. has a ridge that 

extends southwest into the Gulf of Mexico and is dominating the 

basin. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure

S of the Gulf is leading to moderate to fresh mainly SE winds in 

the southern and western Gulf, with mostly gentle winds in the NE.

Seas are 3 to 6 ft, highest offshore western Cuba and lowest near

the eastern Gulf coast. No convection is occurring this evening. 



For the forecast, high pressure across the northern Gulf will 

shift E this weekend and support fresh E to SE winds across the 

western Gulf Sat through Mon. Another cold front will enter the 

western Gulf on Tue. The front will extends from the Florida 

panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed. Fresh to strong winds and 

building seas are expected west of the front. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



The cold front that had been over the NW Caribbean has 

dissipated. In its wake, convection has also waned, and fresh NE 

winds are gradually diminishing. Elsewhere across the basin, 

mainly gentle NE to E trades prevail, except closer to lower 

pressure over Colombia, where offshore waters are having fresh to 

locally strong trades. Seas in the NW Caribbean area 4 to 7 ft, 

with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere, except 4 to 7 ft locally within 90 

nm of the Colombian coast. 



For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will

support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and 

across the Windward Passage tonight through Sat evening. Winds and

seas will then diminish by Sat night. Strong trade winds and 

rough seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia and the southern 

coast of Hispaniola this weekend.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please read the Special Features section for information on

Significant Swell that is impacting sections of the central and 

eastern Atlantic.



A weakening cold front is noted from just SE of Bermuda to the

Turks and Caicos. A band of scattered moderate convection is noted

along and within 60 nm ahead of this boundary. Fresh to locally 

strong NW to N winds follow the front and extend W to around 75W. 

Further W, with high pressure building in from the U.S., winds are

moderate or weaker. Behind the front, seas are 8 to 11 ft, with 

12 to 14 ft seas SW of Bermuda, N of 27N between 65W and 75W.



To the southeast of the front, broad low pressure of 1009 mb is 

near 27N57W, with a trough extending northwest from it to 31N60W,

and another trough extending from the low to 22N56W and 

southwestward to the northern Leeward Islands. A wide area of 

numerous moderate to isolated strong convection associated with

these features is present N of 23N between 45W and 51W. Strong to

locally near gale force SE winds is present in and around this

area of convection. 



A broad area of rather persistent high pressure continues to be 

the main feature controlling the wind pattern regime over the 

eastern Atlantic and the eastern part of the central Atlantic 

areas. The high pressure is anchored by a 1025 mb center that is 

north of the area near 33N39W. Moderate to trades dominate waters

S of 21N and E of 41W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds

are light to gentle with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 

 

For the forecast W of 55W, broad low pressure SE of Bermuda 

centered near 27N56W will weaken to a trough and move east of 55W 

tonight. Farther west, a cold front extends from 31N65W to E Cuba.

The front will reach from 31N55W to the Mona Passage by Sat 

morning, then move east of the area early Sun. Strong winds and 

rough seas will follow this front. Winds and seas will decrease 

from west to east this weekend as high pressure builds eastward in

the wake of the front. 



$$

Konarik